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The world's intelligence agencies and defense experts are quietly acknowledging that North Korea has become a fully fledged nuclear power with the capacity to wipe out entire cities in Japan and South Korea, the Times of London reported.

The new reality has emerged in off-hand remarks and in single sentences buried in lengthy reports. Increasing numbers of authoritative experts -- from the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to the U.S. Defense Secretary -- are admitting that North Korea has miniaturized nuclear warheads to the extent that they can be launched on medium-range missiles, according to intelligence briefings.

This puts it ahead of Iran in the race for nuclear attack capability and seriously alters the balance of power between North Korea's large but poorly equipped military and the South Korean and U.S. forces ranged against it. "North Korea has nuclear weapons, which is a matter of fact," the head of the IAEA, Mohamed ElBaradei, said this week. "I don't like to accept any country as a nuclear weapon state we have to face reality."

North Korea carried out an underground nuclear test in 2006 but until recently foreign governments believed that such nuclear devices were useless as weapons because they were too unwieldy to be mounted on a missile.

With 13,000 artillery pieces buried close to the border between the two Koreas, and chemical and biological warheads, it was always understood that the North could inflict significant conventional damage on Seoul, the South Korean capital. Military planners had calculated, however, that it could not strike outside the peninsula.

Now North Korea's supreme leader, Kim Jong Il, has the potential to kill millions in Japan as well as the South, and to lay waste U.S. bases and airfields in both countries. It will force military strategists to rethink plans for war in Korea and significantly increase the potential costs of any intervention in a future Korean war. The shift from acknowledging North Korea's nuclear weapons development program to recognizing it as a fully fledged nuclear power is highly controversial. South Korea, in particular, resists the reclassification because it could give the North greater leverage in negotiations.

Note: So, will we (or Japan) shoot this thing down or not? I'm thinking we're more bark than bite!
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SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea has removed the cover from the top of a long-range rocket and started a radar needed to track its flight, South Korea's Yonhap news agency said on Sunday in an unsourced report, indicating a launch is imminent.

The United States, South Korea and Japan have said they would see the launch as a test of the North's Taepodong-2 missile, which is designed to fly as far as Alaska.


WASHINGTON (CNN) -- North Korea has begun fueling its long-range rocket, according to a senior U.S. military official.

A satellite image shows a rocket sitting on its launch pad in the northeast of the country.

The fueling signals that the country could be in the final stages of what North Korea has said will be the launch of a satellite into space as early as this weekend, the senior U.S. military official said Wednesday.

Other U.S. military officials said the top portion of the rocket was put on very recently, but satellite imagery shows a shroud over the stage preventing a direct view of what it looks like.

The officials said the payload appears to have a "bulbous" cover, which could indicate that there is a satellite loaded on it. Such a cover protects a satellite from damage in flight.

Although the sources did not know for sure what the payload is, they said there is no reason to doubt that it is a satellite, as indicated by North Korea.

Pyongyang has said it will launch the rocket between April 4 and April 8. A launch would violate a 2006 United Nations Security Council resolution banning the reclusive state from launching ballistic missiles.

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Pentagon officials worry less about the payload and more about the launch itself, saying that any kind of launch will give the North Koreans valuable information about improving their ballistic missile program.

The United States believes that the North Koreans have the technology to hit Alaska or Hawaii with a missile and that the country is working on advancing that technology so it could hit the west coast of the United States.

DERA ISMAIL KHAN, Pakistan --  The commander of the Pakistani Taliban claimed responsibility Tuesday for a deadly assault on a Pakistani police academy and said the group was planning a terrorist attack on the U.S. capital.

Baitullah Mehsud, who has a $5 million bounty on his head from the U.S., said Monday's attack outside the eastern city of Lahore was in retaliation for U.S. missile strikes against militants along the Afghan border.

"Soon we will launch an attack in Washington that will amaze everyone in the world," Mehsud told The Associated Press by phone. He provided no details.

Mehsud and other Pakistani Taliban militants are believed to be based in the country's lawless areas near the border with Afghanistan, where they have stepped up their attacks throughout Pakistan.

Masked Palestinian Hamas members are seen during a demonstration to show solidarity with Sudanese President Omar Al-Beshir, in the Bureij refugee camp, central Gaza, on March 6, 2009.  (UPI Photo/Ismael Mohamad)
Masked Palestinian Hamas members are seen during a demonstration to show solidarity with Sudanese President Omar Al-Beshir, in the Bureij refugee camp, central Gaza, on March 6, 2009. (UPI Photo/Ismael Mohamad)

PORT SUDAN, Sudan, March 26 (UPI) -- An Israeli airstrike on a weapons-laden convoy in Sudan affirms arguments Iran is secretly supplying arms for Hamas fighters in Gaza, analysts said.

The January airstrike in the desert northwest of Port Sudan, which Israel refuses to comment on, reportedly killed 39 people riding in 17 trucks.

The attack, which Paris's Sudan Tribune called an "embarrassment" to Sudan's government, also exposed a network that stretches from Iran through the Persian Gulf and Yemen to Sudan, Egypt and Hamas-ruled Gaza, said analysts, including U.S. terrorism and security expert Reva Bhalla.

Around the time of the attack, Bhalla suggested Lebanon's militant Hezbollah Shiite movement was involved in the Iranian-created arms network, The Jerusalem Post reported Thursday.

"You'll have a bunch of Hezbollah agents who will procure arms through Sudan," said Bhalla, director of geopolitical analysts at Strategic Forecasting Inc., an Austin, Texas, private intelligence agency.

"They'll enter Egypt under forged documents, pay off disgruntled Bedouins in the Sinai with things like light arms, cash, Lebanese hashish -- which they can sell in the black market -- and pay off Egyptian security guards as well so that they can travel covertly into Gaza to pass off the weapons shipments through Hamas' pretty extensive underground tunnel network," Bhalla said at the time.

Before conducting its airstrike, Israel learned of plans to move weapons through Sudan north toward Egypt and then through the Sinai into the Gaza Strip, CBS News reported.

Morning Edition, March 24, 2009 ยท Sometime during the first week in April, North Korea is expected to launch a three-stage, long-range rocket for only the third time in its history.

The North Koreans say the rocket is purely civilian in nature, designed to put a satellite in orbit. But suspicions have grown that this launch may actually be a test of a long-range ballistic missile.

American satellites are watching the launch site carefully to determine North Korea's true intentions.

Preparations have been under way for weeks at Musudan-ni in North Korea for the launch of a rocket, known as the Taepodong-2. The activity at the site provoked concern in the U.S. that the North Koreans were preparing to test a long-range missile that might have the capability one day to deliver a warhead on U.S. territory.

But recently, the North Korean government has taken steps that point to an attempt to put a satellite into orbit, says Mitchell Reiss, vice provost at the College of William and Mary and former head of policy planning at the State Department.

"There's a context in which this launch is going to take place. And so far, the North Koreans are trying very hard to manipulate and shape the context to persuade everybody that this is a civilian-based space launch vehicle," he says.

Earlier this month, North Korea notified international organizations that it intends to launch the rocket between April 4 and 8, on a trajectory east from North Korea. It has warned ships and aircraft to avoid that flight path during those days.

The North Korean actions have been persuasive, says Jack Pritchard, president of the Korea Economic Institute.

"I do think that they are going to attempt to launch a satellite of some form," he says.

Recently, the U.S. director of national intelligence, Adm. Dennis Blair, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that he had reached the same conclusion.

"I tend to believe that the North Koreans announced that they are going to do a space launch, and I believe that that's what they intend. I could be wrong, but that would be my estimate," he said.

Still, uncertainties persist. The North Koreans are assembling the rocket inside a long covered building, out of sight. They will disassemble it, bring the parts out to the launch pad, and reassemble it there. Erecting the rocket on the launch pad will take three days, and it will take another two days to fill it with liquid fuel.

Satellite photos of the rocket on the launch pad will not be available until then.

The rocket will be highly vulnerable to attack once it's been reassembled, hardly a sign that this is a military test launch. But many analysts say civilian and military launches are quite similar, according to Evans Revere, president of the Korea Society.

"Whether it's a satellite launch or something else, what they are essentially doing here is developing the launch vehicle, the same launch vehicle that could be used to launch a warhead of some sort at one of its neighbors or even the United States at some point down the line," he says.

Experts in rocketry say there are significant differences between a space launch vehicle and a long-range missile. Their trajectories are quite different, and that makes for different stresses on the rocket.

With its assortment of sensors in space and radars in Japan, Alaska and at sea, the United States will know within the first minute whether the North Koreans really are trying to put a satellite in orbit.

There has been much talk of using American missile defense interceptors to destroy the North Korean rocket, but such an attempt would be considered only if it was on a flight path to reach U.S. territory. North Korea has said that would constitute an act of war.

Pritchard, of the Korea Economic Institute, believes the North Korean rocket is highly unlikely to pose a threat to the U.S.

"There's no public, nor do I understand, any classified information that suggests that there is any type of warhead, conventional or otherwise. So the potential for this being a risk to U.S. security is not there, as far as we know," he says.

There also is great concern in Japan about this rocket because it will overfly Japanese territory.

Reiss, of the College of William and Mary, believes that everybody ought to take a deep breath and use diplomacy to get North Korea back to the bargaining table over its nuclear weapons and its missile development.

"What we need to do is to think very clearly about what level of threat this space launch vehicle really presents to us, make sure that our allies don't overreact, then try to think through exactly what it is that we want from the North Koreans in the future," he advises.

This will be only the third time North Korea has launched a Taepodong-2. In 1998, Pyongyang claimed it put a satellite in orbit, but there has been no proof of that. In 2006, there was a missile test, but it exploded 45 seconds after launch.

JERUSALEM  --  Israel's military condemned on Monday T-shirts worn by soldiers that depict scenes of violence against Palestinians as the army faces increasing domestic criticism over its conduct during the recent Gaza war.

The T-shirts, ordered by troops to mark the end of basic training and other military courses, were worn by a number of enlisted men in different units, the daily Haaretz newspaper reported. They were not made or sanctioned by the military.

One depicts a child in the cross-hairs of a rifle with the slogan, "The smaller they are, the harder it is," said one of T-shirts shown in Haaretz. Another shows a pregnant woman in the cross-hairs and the words "1 Shot 2 Kills." Others depict a soldier blowing up a mosque and Palestinian women weeping over a gravestone.

The Tel Aviv factory that made many of the shirts, Adiv, refused to comment.

The shirts "are not in accordance with IDF values and are simply tasteless," the army said in a statement. "This type of humor is unbecoming and should be condemned."

The statement said disciplinary action would be taken against troops wearing the T-shirts.

The Israeli military has been facing increased criticism at home for its conduct in Gaza in the aftermath of published testimony from several unidentified soldiers released last week.

The soldiers' testimony described troops killing Palestinian civilians, including children, by hastily opening fire under relaxed rules of engagement. The soldiers also reported the wanton destruction of civilian property.

The three-week Gaza offensive, launched to end years of rocket fire at Israeli towns, ended on Jan. 18. According to Palestinian officials, around 1,400 Palestinians were killed, most of them civilians. Thirteen Israelis died, three of them civilians.

China effectively ended a stand-off with the United States that began when its naval vessels harassed an American surveillance ship and attributed the reduction in tension directly to President Barack Obama.

Just a day earlier, Beijing said that it would boost patrols in the South China Sea, converting decommissioned naval ships and possibly drafting in fishing boats to protect its interests in the disputed area.

However, a front-page article today in the China Daily headlined "Sino-US sea stand-off appears to have ended" signalled a change of tone. Top commanders had no plans to increase the People's Liberation Army military presence in the South China Sea, it said.

Li Jie, a senior researcher at he Chinese Navy's Military Academy, offered remarks that demonstrated Beijing's apparent eagerness to move forward without an embarrassing climbdown by indicating that it believed that the US military may have acted without Washington's approval.

He told the China Daily: "It is time to call an end to it. It might be that the US military wanted to flex its muscles but the Barack Obama Administration managed to bring the situation under control for the good of both countries."

The Pentagon revealed this month that one of its unarmed maritime surveillance ships had been harassed by five Chinese naval boats in waters about 75 miles (120km) off the southern Chinese island of Hainan. China said that the US ship was engaged in spying. The Pentagon then raised the stakes by sending in a destroyer to protect the USNS Impeccable as it carried out its surveys in the region.

In the confrontation the US ship sprayed Chinese vessels with their fire hoses as they approached within metres, prompting the Chinese sailors to strip down to their underwear.

Zhang Tuosheng, director of the China Foundation for International and Strategic Studies, said that neither side wanted to see the incident blow up. "This is because both sides have so many areas they share interests in."

The US Defence Secretary, Robert Gates, has indicated that diplomatic efforts may have made it unnecessary to send out any more warship escorts for surveillance vessels.

China's more conciliatory approach may indicate that it has achieved the aim of showing the United States that the modernisation of its navy has made it a force to be reckoned with in its regional waters.

A region of atolls, islands and reefs in the South China is disputed by China, Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei, and the area is one of the world's busiest shipping lanes. More than half the globe's oil tanker traffic passes through the South China Sea as it offers the shortest route between the Pacific and Indian oceans for ships bringing energy from the Middle East to China and Japan.

Both the United States and China may have been reluctant to allow the surveillance boat incident to result in heightened tensions at the start of the Obama Administration and just as both countries struggle to cope with the world financial crisis.

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Russian military aircraft flew just 500 feet over two U.S. Navy ships this week as the ships participated in a joint military exercise with South Korea in the Sea of Japan, according to U.S. military officials.

Two Russian Ilyushin IL-38 maritime patrol aircraft flew only 500 feet above a U.S. aircraft carrier.

Two Russian Ilyushin IL-38 maritime patrol aircraft flew only 500 feet above a U.S. aircraft carrier.

On Monday, two Russian Ilyushin IL-38 maritime patrol aircraft, known as "Mays," overflew the U.S. aircraft carrier Stennis while it was in international waters in the Sea of Japan.

The Russian aircraft flew about 500 feet over the ship, lower than other flights the Russians have made over U.S. ships in the past year.

The USS Stennis was about 80 miles east of Pohang, South Korea, participating in the joint military exercise when the flyover occurred.

On Tuesday, the USS Blue Ridge, a lead command and control ship, and the Stennis were overflown by two Russian "Bear" long-range bombers multiple times, according to U.S. military officials.

The Bears overflew the ships at about 2,000 feet, officials said.

U.S. military officials said that in both cases, U.S. Navy F/A-18 fighters met up with the Russian aircraft about 70 nautical miles from the U.S. ships and flew alongside them until they left the area.

On both days, U.S. aircraft tried contacting the Russian planes on international air frequency radio channels, but the Russian pilots did not respond, officials said.

The last time Russian planes flew over a U.S. Navy ship was February 2008, when two Bears flew 2,000 feet over the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz south of Japan.

Russian long-range flights skirting U.S. or other nations' boundaries have also been common over the last year.

Although the Pentagon does not often talk about the overflights, there is nothing illegal about the actions, and they are generally seen by the United States as nothing more than muscle-flexing by the Russian military.
 

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