Morning Edition, March 24, 2009 ยท
Sometime during the first week in April, North Korea is expected to
launch a three-stage, long-range rocket for only the third time in its
history.
The North Koreans say the rocket is purely civilian in
nature, designed to put a satellite in orbit. But suspicions have grown
that this launch may actually be a test of a long-range ballistic
missile.
American satellites are watching the launch site carefully to determine North Korea's true intentions.
Preparations
have been under way for weeks at Musudan-ni in North Korea for the
launch of a rocket, known as the Taepodong-2. The activity at the site
provoked concern in the U.S. that the North Koreans were preparing to
test a long-range missile that might have the capability one day to
deliver a warhead on U.S. territory.
But recently, the North
Korean government has taken steps that point to an attempt to put a
satellite into orbit, says Mitchell Reiss, vice provost at the College
of William and Mary and former head of policy planning at the State
Department.
"There's a context in which this launch is going to
take place. And so far, the North Koreans are trying very hard to
manipulate and shape the context to persuade everybody that this is a
civilian-based space launch vehicle," he says.
Earlier this
month, North Korea notified international organizations that it intends
to launch the rocket between April 4 and 8, on a trajectory east from
North Korea. It has warned ships and aircraft to avoid that flight path
during those days.
The North Korean actions have been persuasive, says Jack Pritchard, president of the Korea Economic Institute.
"I do think that they are going to attempt to launch a satellite of some form," he says.
Recently,
the U.S. director of national intelligence, Adm. Dennis Blair, told the
Senate Armed Services Committee that he had reached the same conclusion.
"I
tend to believe that the North Koreans announced that they are going to
do a space launch, and I believe that that's what they intend. I could
be wrong, but that would be my estimate," he said.
Still,
uncertainties persist. The North Koreans are assembling the rocket
inside a long covered building, out of sight. They will disassemble it,
bring the parts out to the launch pad, and reassemble it there.
Erecting the rocket on the launch pad will take three days, and it will
take another two days to fill it with liquid fuel.
Satellite photos of the rocket on the launch pad will not be available until then.
The
rocket will be highly vulnerable to attack once it's been reassembled,
hardly a sign that this is a military test launch. But many analysts
say civilian and military launches are quite similar, according to
Evans Revere, president of the Korea Society.
"Whether it's a
satellite launch or something else, what they are essentially doing
here is developing the launch vehicle, the same launch vehicle that
could be used to launch a warhead of some sort at one of its neighbors
or even the United States at some point down the line," he says.
Experts
in rocketry say there are significant differences between a space
launch vehicle and a long-range missile. Their trajectories are quite
different, and that makes for different stresses on the rocket.
With
its assortment of sensors in space and radars in Japan, Alaska and at
sea, the United States will know within the first minute whether the
North Koreans really are trying to put a satellite in orbit.
There
has been much talk of using American missile defense interceptors to
destroy the North Korean rocket, but such an attempt would be
considered only if it was on a flight path to reach U.S. territory.
North Korea has said that would constitute an act of war.
Pritchard, of the Korea Economic Institute, believes the North Korean rocket is highly unlikely to pose a threat to the U.S.
"There's
no public, nor do I understand, any classified information that
suggests that there is any type of warhead, conventional or otherwise.
So the potential for this being a risk to U.S. security is not there,
as far as we know," he says.
There also is great concern in Japan about this rocket because it will overfly Japanese territory.
Reiss,
of the College of William and Mary, believes that everybody ought to
take a deep breath and use diplomacy to get North Korea back to the
bargaining table over its nuclear weapons and its missile development.
"What
we need to do is to think very clearly about what level of threat this
space launch vehicle really presents to us, make sure that our allies
don't overreact, then try to think through exactly what it is that we
want from the North Koreans in the future," he advises.
This will
be only the third time North Korea has launched a Taepodong-2. In 1998,
Pyongyang claimed it put a satellite in orbit, but there has been no
proof of that. In 2006, there was a missile test, but it exploded 45
seconds after launch.